The Parents Arrive

Today marked an interesting historic coincidence. The Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu arrived in Iran the same day that General Kurilla, commander of US Central Command, arrived in Israel. The feelings are like that of parents arriving after there was a fight between kids at school. No doubt Shoigu will attempt to temper the Iranian response to prevent one of their closest allies from being driven to collapse. Israel has been keen to avoid supplying Ukraine with weapons and the Russians certainly appreciate that. Likewise Russia has avoided supplying weapons to Iran over the decades which Israel has also not forgotten. For nearly a decade Iran has been asking Russia to sell them Su-30 or 35s but Western and Israeli pressure has prevented that. Remarkably F-16s have arrived in Ukraine while Iran is still without Su-35s. Likely expedited arms shipments will be offered in exchange for calm. 

The US position has been very clear regarding the desire for Israeli restraint. However, the US position is not quite as neutral as Russia's, with Americans being held hostage in Gaza while the Houthis directly engage the US Navy and disrupt international commerce. American strike aircraft regularly venture into Yemen and pre-emptive strikes in Iraq against Iranian-aligned militia are becoming more common. Yet despite the Axis of Resistance standing against American ideals in the fullest the US has no interest in defeating it kinetically due to the massive economic costs of such an endeavor. But to defeat this Axis the US does not need to fight. Internal pressure in Iran continues to build as its people grow tired of being oppressed by a dictatorship of the mullahs. Just as with the Warsaw Pact, it is clear the true way to defeat it is to sit patiently and wait for it to crumble from the inside. So while US Central Command has made clear that it will defend Israel, it will not go on the offensive. 

We are now approaching a week since Hamas' political chief Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran and so far the response from Iran has been nil. Even when a response does come the hesitation has shown how much the Iranians fear the Israelis and the consequences of excessive retaliation. If Iran is committed to reestablishing deterrence then the attack must be even more significant to overcome the appearance of indecisiveness or sluggish preparation. In light of this the Israelis have continued to issue threats that if severe damage is inflicted on Israel then the leash will come off the IDF. How to define 'severe damage' may be a point of contention soon. 

The end of one chapter and the beginning of a new

    The end of July was filled with political intrigue and no doubt the dominating event has been the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. As the lead representative for Hamas and Gaza the Israelis have made clear with his elimination that they are no longer interested in negotiation. In reality this had already been made clear two weeks earlier when the Israeli Knesset passed a symbolic resolution totally rejecting the creation of a Palestinian state. Up until that point and in particular since the Oslo Accords, Israel had been open to the idea of a two state solution if its security could be guaranteed. Whether or not this two-state resolution was being actively negotiated in good faith through the quarter century is up for debate but what the Knesset has made clear is those days are over. There will be no more discussion of an independent Palestinian state as far as the Israeli legislature is concerned.

    This intention has existed in the Israeli far-right since the beginning but it wasn't a mainstream idea across Israel. However, the horrific events that occurred on October 7th brought the idea that a Palestinian state was now impossible into public discussion. Hamas had murdered civilians, the elderly, and children and had done so under the flag of the only government Palestinians had elected democratically. Despite the atrocities many were quick to justify the behavior of Hamas as 'resistance'.

    If this was suggestive of how a Palestinian state would behave then it would not come to exist if Israel had any say. Of course the insanity committed by Hamas comes after nearly two decades of increasing hopelessness for the people of Gaza. Though how much of that hopelessness is due to Israel's propensity for demolition and how much is Hamas' unwillingness to give up on its maximalist goals of defeating the state of Israel can't be known. What we do know is a new chapter has opened, and the second paragraph of that chapter will arrive possibly tomorrow or the day after when the Axis of Resistance attempts to avenge the death of Haniyeh and save face from Israel's demonstration of Iran's total vulnerability.

    My expectation of the Axis is a 400-500 missile barrage against Israel with the aim of stressing Israeli defenses to their breaking point. However Israel has stated severe damage would result in total war, and Israeli civilian casualties will likely result in further assassinations of Axis leadership possibly including Nasrallah himself, the leader of Hezbollah. Because of this a large strike must be calculated enough to stress defenses but not hurt anything that would illicit a response. The preferred choice of the Axis would be to assassinate Israeli leadership and demonstrate similar capabilities but I don't think they have the capacity. So for the second time this year, Israel will come under bombardment from a ballistic missile volley. Prior to this year Saddam Hussein in 1991 was the last to do something so bold. Will this be the last time?