The Parents Arrive

Today marked an interesting historic coincidence. The Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu arrived in Iran the same day that General Kurilla, commander of US Central Command, arrived in Israel. The feelings are like that of parents arriving after there was a fight between kids at school. No doubt Shoigu will attempt to temper the Iranian response to prevent one of their closest allies from being driven to collapse. Israel has been keen to avoid supplying Ukraine with weapons and the Russians certainly appreciate that. Likewise Russia has avoided supplying weapons to Iran over the decades which Israel has also not forgotten. For nearly a decade Iran has been asking Russia to sell them Su-30 or 35s but Western and Israeli pressure has prevented that. Remarkably F-16s have arrived in Ukraine while Iran is still without Su-35s. Likely expedited arms shipments will be offered in exchange for calm. 

The US position has been very clear regarding the desire for Israeli restraint. However, the US position is not quite as neutral as Russia's, with Americans being held hostage in Gaza while the Houthis directly engage the US Navy and disrupt international commerce. American strike aircraft regularly venture into Yemen and pre-emptive strikes in Iraq against Iranian-aligned militia are becoming more common. Yet despite the Axis of Resistance standing against American ideals in the fullest the US has no interest in defeating it kinetically due to the massive economic costs of such an endeavor. But to defeat this Axis the US does not need to fight. Internal pressure in Iran continues to build as its people grow tired of being oppressed by a dictatorship of the mullahs. Just as with the Warsaw Pact, it is clear the true way to defeat it is to sit patiently and wait for it to crumble from the inside. So while US Central Command has made clear that it will defend Israel, it will not go on the offensive. 

We are now approaching a week since Hamas' political chief Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran and so far the response from Iran has been nil. Even when a response does come the hesitation has shown how much the Iranians fear the Israelis and the consequences of excessive retaliation. If Iran is committed to reestablishing deterrence then the attack must be even more significant to overcome the appearance of indecisiveness or sluggish preparation. In light of this the Israelis have continued to issue threats that if severe damage is inflicted on Israel then the leash will come off the IDF. How to define 'severe damage' may be a point of contention soon.