The end of July was filled with political intrigue and no doubt the dominating event has been the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. As the lead representative for Hamas and Gaza the Israelis have made clear with his elimination that they are no longer interested in negotiation. In reality this had already been made clear two weeks earlier when the Israeli Knesset passed a symbolic resolution totally rejecting the creation of a Palestinian state. Up until that point and in particular since the Oslo Accords, Israel had been open to the idea of a two state solution if its security could be guaranteed. Whether or not this two-state resolution was being actively negotiated in good faith through the quarter century is up for debate but what the Knesset has made clear is those days are over. There will be no more discussion of an independent Palestinian state as far as the Israeli legislature is concerned.
This intention has existed in the Israeli far-right since the beginning but it wasn't a mainstream idea across Israel. However, the horrific events that occurred on October 7th brought the idea that a Palestinian state was now impossible into public discussion. Hamas had murdered civilians, the elderly, and children and had done so under the flag of the only government Palestinians had elected democratically. Despite the atrocities many were quick to justify the behavior of Hamas as 'resistance'.
If this was suggestive of how a Palestinian state would behave then it would not come to exist if Israel had any say. Of course the insanity committed by Hamas comes after nearly two decades of increasing hopelessness for the people of Gaza. Though how much of that hopelessness is due to Israel's propensity for demolition and how much is Hamas' unwillingness to give up on its maximalist goals of defeating the state of Israel can't be known. What we do know is a new chapter has opened, and the second paragraph of that chapter will arrive possibly tomorrow or the day after when the Axis of Resistance attempts to avenge the death of Haniyeh and save face from Israel's demonstration of Iran's total vulnerability.
My expectation of the Axis is a 400-500 missile barrage against Israel with the aim of stressing Israeli defenses to their breaking point. However Israel has stated severe damage would result in total war, and Israeli civilian casualties will likely result in further assassinations of Axis leadership possibly including Nasrallah himself, the leader of Hezbollah. Because of this a large strike must be calculated enough to stress defenses but not hurt anything that would illicit a response. The preferred choice of the Axis would be to assassinate Israeli leadership and demonstrate similar capabilities but I don't think they have the capacity. So for the second time this year, Israel will come under bombardment from a ballistic missile volley. Prior to this year Saddam Hussein in 1991 was the last to do something so bold. Will this be the last time?
Neat!
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