As tensions remain high in the Middle East and rhetoric continues to be thrown around I think it is important to look back to 1967 to understand an event that will undoubtedly be looming in the minds of both sides. One side debating if it need be repeated and the other concerned how to avoid such a disaster. This event would be Operation Focus, the max effort pre-emptive strike by the Israelis that utterly shattered the Egyptian Air Force at the beginning of the 1967 Six-Day War.
The nature of airpower and even more so ballistic missiles give an unprecedented advantage to the offensive. To be caught with your air force on the ground is the ultimate disaster with the American experience at Pearl Harbor and in the Phillipines during December 1941 being the most significant example. However in those cases the US Army Air Forces were hurt but not broken, while the same can't be said for the Egyptian Air Force in 1967 which was shattered in a single day.
Do similar circumstances exist now? The Iranian ballistic missile arsenal has already shown limits to Israel's defenses and blunting larger attacks will require attacking launchers pre-emptively. Israel has sworn revenge for the more recent raid and questions remain regarding what they'll attack. An Operation Focus style raid would require sustaining lots of aircraft at range and attacking many distributed targets. The F-35 fleet combined with air launched ballistic missiles may be able to strike many launchers but likely not a comprehensive attack. So what will Israel do?
Assassination of IRGC leadership in Iran would be a remarkable escalation as would attacking oil facilities. Attacking missile factories seems the most logical to avoid escalation if that's the goal. However the death of Iranian civilians would only result in more escalation. Seems escalation may be the future.
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